Governor Gavin Newsom of California is the front-runner for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. It’s a pretty neat trick for someone who isn’t technically running for the job.
It’s not an official designation or anything, and a lot can change in the next two years. But at the moment, he’s the one to beat. There’s no other prominent Democrat who has taken on MAGA and won. Not Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, not Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, and — sorry to say — not even that other big-deal California Democrat, former vice president Kamala Harris. Zohran Mamdani, the democratic socialist mayor-elect of New York City, may have charmed the grumpy old man in the White House when they met on Nov. 21, but he hasn’t even started his new gig yet.
Meanwhile, Newsom has racked up a string of victories against Trump and his Republican allies. He sued to stop Trump from federalizing the National Guard (just one of 47 lawsuits filed since January challenging the president’s policies), and though the lawsuit isn’t settled, there haven’t been any deployments to California cities since June.
When Texas lawmakers redrew congressional maps to give Republicans an edge in the midterm elections at the behest of Trump, Newsom whipped together a last-minute special election asking voters to redraw California’s congressional maps in favor of Democrats, which they did in a landslide.
Even before Election Day, Newsom was outpolling President Trump. And when the Trump administration failed to send US representatives to the COP30 climate talks in Brazil in November, Newsom attended and was, at least according to Politico, a “a rock star.” And he’s winning on social media, too, co-opting Trump’s uniquely bizarre trolling style and dishing it right back to great approval from downtrodden Democrats.
Still, Newsom is coy about his presidential ambitions, and is often irritated when people ask. Which they do. A lot. When reporters quizzed him during a July press conference about whether his trip later that day to meet voters in South Carolina had anything to do with the presidential race, Newsom lost his patience: “Oh God. I mean, Jesus.” It was a reasonable question. South Carolina is expected to hold the first primary in 2028. And it’s very far from California.
Recently, he’s less touchy. In an interview with CBS News he said that he would give it serious thought after the midterm elections.
It’s long been assumed by California’s political class that Newsom has his sights set on the White House. He’s termed out of the governor’s office in January 2027 and is clearly not interested in retiring. There’s only one job that would be considered a promotion from the job of leading the nation’s most populous state, with an economy larger than most countries’.
And, c’mon, nobody debates Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida just for the fun of it, as Newsom did in 2023. Why hold a redistricting election victory rally in Texas? Why take time for meet-and-greet tours through deeply red Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi in his spare time? And why launch a podcast in which the guests are national political figures (the late Charlie Kirk, cofounder of Turning Point USA, was the first guest) if not to lay groundwork for the future?
To be fair, Newsom has little to gain at the moment from announcing he plans to run. It would only put a target on his back. Or rather, a larger one. California and its Democratic leaders have held special “most hated” status with the GOP for decades.
Is this front-runner status a blessing or a curse? “A little bit of both,” Christian Grose, a professor of political science and public policy at University of Southern California, told me. It’s good for his brand to have people talking about him. “But other front-runners have flamed out.”
Remember when former governor Jeb Bush of Florida and DeSantis led the pack of Republican presidential hopefuls for the 2016 and 2024 primaries, respectively? Their stars were ultimately eclipsed by Trump. And more recently, and former representative Katie Porter of California was handily leading the candidates to replace Newsom until a reputation-damaging snippy exchange with a reporter went viral and turned off voters. Now polls have her trailing one of the Republican candidates.
And there’s always the possibility that a little-known politician suddenly gains steam on the national stage. Then-senator Hillary Clinton seemed a shoo-in for the 2008 nomination until then-senator Barack Obama entered the race. “Who knows what surprise person comes on the scene in the 2026 midterms,” Grose said.
Eight years later, Clinton was again the early front-runner, and she remained so until her surprise defeat in the general election to you-know-who.
So if Newsom plans to run a savvy race for president, this just might be what it looks like. The lesson? There really isn’t one. California’s governor might keep his top spot until Election Day in 2028. Or not.
This column originally appeared in the Boston Globe, where I am a contributor to the Opinion section. It is reprinted with permission.
